From: David Robjant (David.Robjant@irismurdoch.plus.com)
Date: Mon Jun 07 2004 - 21:43:17 BST
Adam,
You're right that opinion polling has it's faults and that in Iraq it has
special dangers to do with fear and the nascent acculturation to free speech
and democracy (although to judge by their newspapers they are certainly
getting the hang of it). So there's a margin of error. Which in this case
may be large. But how large? 10%, 20%, even 30%, OK, maybe. But a *60%*
margin of error?
If the polling was even slightly tight (30% this way, 50% the other) I'd
say that the polling might be regarded as untrustworthy. And if the polling
contradicted other evidence we had about popular feeling (statements by
imams compared with the turnouts at their congregations, newspaper opinions
and their circulations, popular demonstrations etc) that would also be a
reason to doubt a connection between the polling and the reality.
But in this case everything, polls, the statements of leaders with real
popular support (eg Sistani), the rival newspaper circulations, the
demonstrations from the day of the statue on - *everything* points to the
notion that those iraqis wishing that Saddam had not been toppled by the
US/UK are a minority. A significant and geographically concentrated
minority (since Saddam exploited tribal loyalities to devide and rule) but a
minority.
There only visible consideration which points in the other direction and
towards a complete disbeleif in the message of the polls and an estimation
of their margin of error at somewhere near 50-60% is: what? That a
proportion of nationalist arabs and anti-war westerners *cannot beleive*
that these people wanted their country invaded?
Well, *newsflash*: they did. They had good reason. Saddam was worse. You
have no idea how much worse. Didn't you *see* the faces and crowds greeting
the british in basra? They know we came to do a job and that when they can
carry on we will leave them to it ASAP.
DavidR
BTW, this is me signing out for now: too much typing not good for you! I'll
check in again in a while to see if more spacious, relaxed etc. Toodlepip.
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