huh?
odds don't magically change from 1/3 to 1/2 because he offered
a switch they changed because door number one is no longer an option.
He offers the switch money after door number one is revealed not before.
You lost me here Glenn.
I think Rick is asking if the events are independent. Does
choice number one affect choice number two. From what I remember
about coin tosses they are... its doors 2 or 3 thus 50/50 odds
no magic here just statistics.
Erin
>Hi Rick,
>Monty doesn't have to offer you money to switch your choice, unless sailing
>down the river in a boat with Bob P. is not enticing enough. You have a 2/3
>chance of getting the good prize if you switch, as opposed to 1/3 if you
>stay with your original choice. His showing you a door with a booby prize,
>which he can always do, does not magically change the odds of your original
>pick from 1/3 to 1/2.
>Glenn
>
>"Valence" <valence10@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>>Hey all,
>>I was hoping that some mathematically/statistically inclined forum member
might be kind enough to comment on the following "problem'"which has had me
going 'round in circles for a while:
>>
>>Here's the Setup:
>> Imagine you're a contestant on Let's Make a Deal. Monty Hall calls you
up to the stage and explains the game to you. He tells you there are three
doors. Door #1. Door #2. And Door #3. Behind two of the doors (he won't
tell you which of
>course) are worthless gag prizes, but behind the third is a valuable prize
(for this group, we'll imagine it's an unlimited one-on-one Q&A with Robert
Pirsig as he sails you down the Hudson River on the Arête).
>> Monty asks you choose a door... you pick door #2. Monty says, "Well
it's a good thing you didn't pick door#1." Door#1 opens and you see one of
the gag prizes revealed (let's say... a goat in a wheelbarrow).
>> Now you're down to your chosen door (door#2) and the remaining door
(door#3). Monty says, "I'll give you $100 to switch to door#3.... I'll give
to $200...$300...etc...etc."
>>
>>Here's the Question:
>>Does switching doors improve your odds of winning?
>>
>>Here's the Possibilities:
>>1. Switching won't help. It's a 50/50 chance. Door #2 or Door #3.
Switching don't mean diddley.
>>
>>2. Switching will help. You started with 3 doors. 2 bad and 1 good. Odds
are, you picked a bad one to begin with. So odds are, if you switch, you're
switching to a good one.
>>
>>
>>
>>Can anyone crack this one for me? Does switching improve the odds?
>>
>>
>>thanks,
>>rick
>>
>>
>>
>
>
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