Hi Rick,
Assuming that Monty is not somehow cheating behind the scenes, your assumption number 1 is indeed correct.
The mistake in your logic in number 2 is that when you had no knowledge of the three options, your chances of being correct are one in three, which as you indicate are not very good odds. However Monty has now changed the information you have at your disposal. You now know that the odds are one in two.
If I wished to be quite cynical, I would take the money and change. My reason is that the odds statistically are equally good for either of the remaining choices. So if I gamble on the original choice I have an eaqual chance of winning or losing. If I switch, I still have the same equal chance, plus the cash offer.
Glenn's logic is completely incorrect when he says "There's a 99% chance the good prize is behind door 66." The odds remain 50/50. Monty, of course, knows where the prize is, but that doesn't change your information or your odds.
John B
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