All,
A way of looking at it is as follows:
Assume the price is in door A:
Your choice Monty choice Stategy
Door A (1/3 ch) Door B (1/2 ch) Change looses / stay wins
Door C (1/2 ch) Change looses / stay
wins
Door B (1/3 ch) Door C (1 ch) Change wins / stay looses
Door C (1/3 ch) Door B (1 ch) Change wins / stay looses
(Monty canot select door A when the price is in door A)
So if you sum up, strategy stay wins in 1/3*(1/2 + 1/2)=1/3 times,
strategy change wins in (1/3*1 + 1/3 * 1 ) = 2/3 times.
I have also tried simulating this, and won a lot of money - so I knowit
works according to the theory.
Best regards
Gerhard
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