Hi Glenn,
>
>
>By your reasoning, door number 57 has switched from having a 1%
>chance to a 50% chance for being the good prize because all those
>other doors are no longer an option.
yes that is my reasoning, glad you were not as "creative" with it
as your definiton of teleology
That's not sensible. Obviously you
>would switch. There's a 99% chance the good prize is behind door 66.
>Glenn
>
99%? now that's magic!
If he can guarantee that it is
behind door number 57 or 66 it is a 50% chance whether you switch or not.
You bringing the other doors is on the basis that Monty is a liar
and the probability is "really" based on 100 doors rather then 2.
I don't understand because you seem to believe Monty that it is
not behind the doors by your high 99% probability rate but at the same
time keeping the other doors in the equation because it might be
behind them? huh?
Like I said what I am reasoning on is my memory of coin
tosses. (i haven't double-checked but believe it is right)If you get
heads-heads-heads- heads whether you get heads again is 50 -50 it doesn't
decrease or increae because of past events.
The events of the other coin tosses don't affect the present coin toss.
The fact the first guess was 1/100 is independent thus does not affect his
second guess which is 1/2.
Monty offering switcheroos are irrelevent.
so my reason is based on coin toss, where does yours come
Erin
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