Erin,
Why don't you look up the word "teleology" in the dictionary and then
directly quote where you think I've misrepresented its meaning, and why.
What you said about coin tossing is correct but this will not help you
with Rick's puzzle. I'm sorry but I don't understand your protests
about my expanded version of the game. Having 100 doors is supposed to
exagerate the effect that is hard to see with only 3 doors.
When you choose door 57, you have to admit that you probably have it wrong.
Nothing Monty subsequently reveals to you will change that, because you
made the choice when you had less information. Monty then
opens 98 doors showing booby prizes, purposely avoiding revealing the
one with the good prize. So when only doors 57 and 66 remain, you can be
nearly assured that 66 is the winner.
I don't know if I can explain it any better. Sleep on it and go over what
I wrote again tomorrow.
Glenn
Erin Noonan <enoonan@kent.edu> wrote:
>Hi Glenn,
>>
>>
>>By your reasoning, door number 57 has switched from having a 1%
>>chance to a 50% chance for being the good prize because all those
>>other doors are no longer an option.
>
>yes that is my reasoning, glad you were not as "creative" with it
>as your definiton of teleology
>
>That's not sensible. Obviously you
>>would switch. There's a 99% chance the good prize is behind door 66.
>>Glenn
>>
>99%? now that's magic!
>If he can guarantee that it is
>behind door number 57 or 66 it is a 50% chance whether you switch or not.
>You bringing the other doors is on the basis that Monty is a liar
>and the probability is "really" based on 100 doors rather then 2.
>I don't understand because you seem to believe Monty that it is
>not behind the doors by your high 99% probability rate but at the same
>time keeping the other doors in the equation because it might be
>behind them? huh?
>Like I said what I am reasoning on is my memory of coin
>tosses. (i haven't double-checked but believe it is right)If you get
>heads-heads-heads- heads whether you get heads again is 50 -50 it doesn't
>decrease or increae because of past events.
>The events of the other coin tosses don't affect the present coin toss.
>The fact the first guess was 1/100 is independent thus does not affect his
>second guess which is 1/2.
>Monty offering switcheroos are irrelevent.
>
>so my reason is based on coin toss, where does yours come
>
>Erin
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