Rick,
I didn't read the original posting on this, if I understand the question
properly from your summary of possibilities, the answer is:
If the puzzle is 'reset' after each round of play, the odds remain precisely
as they were the first round: switching to a different choice in a
subsequent round does not change the odds. Erin is entirely correct in her
coin-flipping example: each new toss of the coin has the same 50-50 chance
of coming up heads (or tails), regardless of the history of the tosses.
If the puzzle states that you have three doors, where one is good and two
are bad, and you pick in your mind one of them, then before announcing your
choice you switch to either of the two other doors, your chances of getting
the good door are improved, this assertion is FALSE. Your odds overall of
getting the right door are 1 in 3. It is true that when you pick a door, the
odds are, therefore that you will get a bad one: the odds, are, precisely, 2
in 3. But when you switch from your choice to one of the other two doors,
you are also giving up the chance of getting the good door, if the good door
happened to be that first choice. The giving up of the chance of getting the
first door, if it is the good one, cancels out the increased odds of getting
the good one, if it is one of the two remaining doors.
Lawry de Bivort
> >Here's the Question:
> >Does switching doors improve your odds of winning?
> >
> >Here's the Possibilities:
> >1. Switching won't help. It's a 50/50 chance. Door #2 or Door #3.
> Switching don't mean diddley.
> >
> >2. Switching will help. You started with 3 doors. 2 bad and 1
> good. Odds
> are, you picked a bad one to begin with. So odds are, if you
> switch, you're
> switching to a good one.
> >
>
> >
> >Can anyone crack this one for me? Does switching improve the odds?
> >
> >
> >thanks,
> >rick
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