Hi Glenn,
Yes, you are right. I was too quick to assume that Monty's calculated
choices made no difference to the odds.
Of course, Monty, through opening only those doors which he knows to be
booby prizes, is not giving a random input. If a machine opened each door in
turn, and at the end there was only one door left plus the one previously
chosen, my answer would stand - still 50/50. But Monty is not a mchine, and
therefore the odds are as you suggest.
I checked this with my wife playing Monty, and out of 12 attempts 9 came up
positive for changing my choice. Not far from the 8 predicted by theory.
John B
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