Dear all,
As we are into probabilities, I would like to discuss with you all a
MoQ related problem in probability, or in fact a SOM problem.
Probabilities can in some cases be established as objective
probabilities, as for coin flipping you can do 1000 or 10 000 flips and
the probabilities would for most coins end up in a 50 / 50 % chance. In
other cases such a "true" probability cannot be established, as for
example what is the chance of Brazil winning the next Soccer World Cup?
If a objective probability for this should be established, we would have
to let all the national teams play a simulated world cup 1000 times, and
do statistics of these. Off course, this will be a rather boring
exercise, and players will not be interested, and the experiment will be
totally wasted because of the lack of "reality". As a result, bookmakers
and others will have to rely on what they call subjective probabilities,
which in many cases is pure guessing from a group of so-called experts.
In gambling and other games, this is not a large problem, but in safety
questions this is very important. Do you believe in a subjective
estimate from experts that the probability of the ferry you travel on is
going to sink is 0.0001 %, or do you only rely on objective
probabilities based on historic accidents from all types of ferries
(some of these accidents may have been on ferries approximately equal to
the ferry you travel on, but others are totally different and maybe in
totally different waters etc.). There is a large argument between these
two views.
I'm wondering if this is a construction of the SOM? How should I look at
this problem from a MoQ point of view?
Thanks for reading. I'm looking forward to your views.
Regard,
Gerhard
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