Dear all,
As we are into probabilities, I would like to discuss with you all a MoQ
related problem in probability, or in fact a SOM problem.
Probabilities can in some cases be established as objective probabilities,
as for coin flipping you can do 1000 or 10 000 flips and the probabilities
would for most coins end up in a 50 / 50 % chance. In other cases such a
“true” probability cannot be established, as for example what is the chance
of Brazil winning the next Soccer World Cup? If a objective probability for
this should be established, w! e would have to let all the national teams
play a simulated world cup 1000 times, and do statistics of these. Off
course, this will be a rather boring exercise, and players will not be
interested, and the experiment will be totally wasted because of the lack of
“reality”. As a result, bookmakers and others will have to rely on what they
call subjective probabilities, which in many cases is pure guessing from a
group of so-called experts.
In gambling and other games, this is not a large problem, but in safety
questions this is very important. Do you believe in a subjective estimate
from experts that the probability of the ferry you travel on is going to
sink is 0.0001 %, or do you only rely on objective probabilities based on
historic accidents from all types of ferries (some of these accidents may
have! been on ferries approximately equal to the ferry you travel ! on, but
others are totally different and maybe in totally different waters etc.).
There is a large argument between these two views.
I’m wondering if this is a construction of the SOM? How should I look at
this problem from a MoQ point of view?
Thanks for reading. I’m looking forward to your views.
Regard,
Gerhard
----Well.. Gerhard. It's a very interesting question that raises al lot of other questions. Questions about probability but also about coincidence..
In your example about the ferry - I think - you give a good SOM point of view because the sinking ferry is in this case not a part of you.. The ferry is the ferry and you are you... Not related in anny kind..
Using MoQ view.. You and the ferry are one from the moment you think about traveling by ferry. If we make the assumption that our intellect follows our feelings instead of vice versa... we also can asume that your relation with the ferry is at stake if you delibrately search the history for stories about sinking ferries... Why would you do that.. What makes you search for anny intellectuel backup for not having to take this trip.. You just feel it. A "subjective estimate made by a non-expert" you would say. And from the SOM point of view you might probably ignore the whole feeling.. But from the MoQ point of view it would certainly be wise not to neglect the feeling of aproaching low-quality..
So.. not giving anny answers so far.. I would like to switch to the link between mind and matter that is spell-like in SOM but 'nothing new' in MoQ. The relation that our Will has over probabilities. Situations where people concentrate on some Random Number Generator with the result that in the end there are more head than tails. You probably know the funny story about the soccer match where the home playing country has an advantage over the visiting country just because there are more 'minds' in the crowd to support the players.. South Korea came this far not because of the dutch coach hiddink.. but because there were more South Korean people who concentrated on the game being played in front of them.. ha ha.. :-)
Well.. in MoQ terms it would not be that strange in my opinion. And if all people that encounter the ferry don't want the thing to float... The probability of popping apart above the channel raise... But. don't be afraid.. usually the pilot - or whats it called on a ferry - doesn't want to make his job harder than it allready is.. And he and the ferry are more one than the avarage traveller and the ferry are.. Anny strange sound or movement is picked up by the pilot so the ferry won't get away with its suicidal behaviour...
In the end, there is only one person who can give you an estimated quality about the ferry.. And that person - off course - is you. And if you die on a ferry trip.. well.. it probably wasn't a good one.
If you want to read more about probability I can advice you: The hitchhikers guide to the galaxy.. or: Hiddink and his concentrating Korean soccer fans
Well.. I'm away for three weeks now.. so I won't be able to reply... Please concentrate on the european trains so my change of surviving will improve.. Thanx
Gert-Jan
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