In honor of Jonathon and my earlier discussion of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, I offer you this puzzle:
You have two mugs, equal in volume. Mug One is nearly filled with Coffee.
Mug Two is nearly filled with Milk. The volume of the milk equals that of
the coffee. You take one teaspoon of Milk from Mug Two and stir it
thoroughly into the Coffee in Mug One. You then take one teaspoon of the
liquid from Mug One and put it into Mug Two.
Do you end up with more Coffee in Mug Two than Milk in Mug One, or vice
versa?
Have fun.
Lawry
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-moq_discuss@venus.co.uk
> [mailto:owner-moq_discuss@venus.co.uk]On Behalf Of Jonathan B. Marder
> Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 8:25 AM
> To: moq_discuss@moq.org
> Subject: RE: MD Let's Make a Deal
>
>
> Hi Rick, Erin, Glenn,
>
> I've been in a discussion on this before. The fact that Monty provides
> new information DOES change the statistics. You now know that door #1 is
> worthless, so the stats are as they would be if you knew that in the
> first place - it's 50/50 on door #2 vs. #3.
>
> The interesting thing about the previous debate I saw on this was that
> nobody could agree on the solution . . . until someone ran a simulation
> and confirmed empirically that the chance of guessing right is indeed
> 50%. So much for theory!
>
> Jonathan
>
>
> ---Original message from Rick [VALENCE] ---
>
> Here's the Setup:
> Imagine you're a contestant on Let's Make a Deal. Monty Hall calls
> you up to the stage and explains the game to you. He tells you there
> are three doors. Door #1. Door #2. And Door #3. Behind two of the
> doors (he won't tell you which of course) are worthless gag prizes, but
> behind the third is a valuable prize (for this group, we'll imagine it's
> an unlimited one-on-one Q&A with Robert Pirsig as he sails you down the
> Hudson River on the Arźte).
> Monty asks you choose a door... you pick door #2. Monty says, "Well
> it's a good thing you didn't pick door#1." Door#1 opens and you see one
> of the gag prizes revealed (let's say... a goat in a wheelbarrow).
> Now you're down to your chosen door (door#2) and the remaining door
> (door#3). Monty says, "I'll give you $100 to switch to door#3.... I'll
> give to $200...$300...etc...etc."
>
> Here's the Question:
> Does switching doors improve your odds of winning?
>
> Here's the Possibilities:
> 1. Switching won't help. It's a 50/50 chance. Door #2 or Door #3.
> Switching don't mean diddley.
>
> 2. Switching will help. You started with 3 doors. 2 bad and 1 good.
> Odds are, you picked a bad one to begin with. So odds are, if you
> switch, you're switching to a good one.
>
>
>
> Can anyone crack this one for me? Does switching improve the odds?
>
>
> thanks,
> rick
>
>
>
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